kennethkohwk
- Apr 25, 2022
S&P500 at the trigger point of 2 scenarios identified last month... get ready!
Hi folks, the S&P500 got the consolidation that I was looking for based on the Market Outlook we gave on 21 March 2022. In the Market Outlook "Will we go into a bear market because... Russia?" ... ... we outlined that we thought the odds of a bear market recession was low based on macro economic indicators that that majority of signals that usualy preceed a bear market was close to signalling but not yet.
Hence, we expected a consolidation / correction first before a resump
kennethkohwk
- Apr 20, 2022
Our top picks this year ET and VST outperformed the bearish market by a whopping average of 35%.
At the beginning of the year, I mentioned VST and ET as the defensive value alpha plays that I said would "most likely" outperform the market this year. I remember telling one of groupmates during the Zoom market outlook, "don't worry, ET and VST will be the new HPQ," because he lamented not buying HPQ last year as it grinded higher and higher through the year. The free webinar was here: https://www.quantzombie.com/single-post/quantzombie-market-outlook-for-2022-for-friends I
kennethkohwk
- Apr 20, 2022
PRTY looks possible for a 10%-20% upside as it tries to find a bottom.
Party City: Pros: Low Valuation: 4.8x 2022 PE AND expected to grow margins in 2023 as well as the US is opening up. Cons: It's got high debt. 1.2B debt vs 425M market cap. However, EV/EBITDA isn't that bad at 6.9x. Insider buying as well. Because of the high debt load, I don't expect the price to "fly" however, it's entirely possible for the price to go up 10-20%, especially if the price can clear the $3.9 level (technically speaking). If the price clears it, it can go to $4.
