kennethkohwk
- Oct 27, 2022
Finding the end of the bear market of 2022 (Survivor Series Part 3)
Finally, we are at Part 3. I'm writing this Survivor Series because of mortality and legacy. You might be wondering why I am taking the time to map out a large part of my thought process, tapping into some of the best strategies in how to get an inside look at why the stock market cycles, and why many investors tend to get in too late and get out too late as well. Even more pecular that I am not agressively marketing these strategies, else I would blitzing YouTube and Seeking
kennethkohwk
- Oct 24, 2022
Finding the end of the bear market of 2022 (Survivor Series Part 2)
Looks like half way in an intermediate rally. As I type this, beyond expectations, the broad markets are rallying. All of a sudden, from doom and gloom, now even houses like Morgan Stanley is saying that the rally has more legs, even up to 10% more. Where were they a week ago? Well, combined with the 10% bounce from the lows, another 10% bounce would like a 20% bounce. That's as good as an intermediate rally to me. However, a couple days before the actual lows got bounced fro
kennethkohwk
- Oct 22, 2022
Finding the end of the bear market of 2022 (Surivivor Series Part 1)
I highlight ideas how to estimate where the end of the bear market could be in terms of downside price target and time!
kennethkohwk
- Oct 12, 2022
The Rubber Band is Stretched...
The Smart Money / Dumb Money is at intermediate snapback extremes. The SPX Put/Call ratio is the highest since 2014. Traders are really bearish. The Manufacturers' New Orders for Durable Goods is a leading economic indicator. When it starts to turn down, it usually signals a recession. Although it seems that most everyone is expecting this to collapse, it hasn't yet done so, although it can be argued that tightening monetary policy might eventually collapse this... ... but it
kennethkohwk
- Oct 11, 2022
Critical Point for the S&P500
TL:DR: If there is going to be a reversal, it needs to be this week. If not, expect further downside. Last post we said that it might be volatile because we have the duel tension of large variables pointing to a recession, but at the same time being very oversold. So longer term downward forces, but short term support forces. We said in the last post: "those who are playing for an intermediate bounce, would go long now (and better on certain stocks that are very oversold and
kennethkohwk
- Oct 3, 2022
An intermediate bottom in the S&P500 now?
Although no one can 100% predict with accuracy what future stock market movements will look like, good traders need to have a general framework to trade from. It is far better to use all the data available, and have a rough idea what the markets should do. Then, plan your trades in only certain places to maximize your reward-to-risk ratio in the cash you are wrong. For example, if you think longer term the forces are forcing the stock markets down, then you will wait for the
