Historical Bear Market Duration vs preceding Bull Market
On average, bear market duration is about 21% of the duration of the bull market that was prior. Since the post-Volcker era, the longest bear markets were 21% (dot com bust) and 28% (GFC) in duration.
The recent bear market that started at the beginning of the year was 25% in duration of the bull market that started after the COVID crash in 2020.
PS: I'm still taking my break and not posting much. However, the market internals look good. Breadth has returned and this validates our thinking last month that the intermediate bottom was near. PPS: I wouldn't be surprised that there will be support in the market till year end, with a multi-week correction sometime in Sep/Oct based on simply cycles.
PPPS: Stocks we mentioned that have good cash flow, managable debt, reasonable valuation, reasons for some growth are ET, VST. CROX is also interesting to look at, but tricky in that it's retail and retail tastes can change from year to year. However, as it is set up now, CROX looks to be great reward-to-risk. See our last few blog posts for more detail.
Disclaimer: for educational purposes only!