QuantZombie's Market Outlook: Will there be a Bear Market Rally? 30 May 2022, 7:30 pm. (Free)
Hi everyone, due to the success of last quarter's market outlook, we are holding another free market outlook for 3Q22.
We hope to sow our best work and ideas in you, and hope that if it changes your financial journey, that you freely sow back into us.
Since the beginning of the year, the S&P500 is down almost 20%, growth stocks down anywhere from 30% to 70%. During our market outlook in January 2022 we said the markets would be "weak and whippy", to stay in defensive and value stocks or better yet, defensive value stocks but keep some cash to take advantage of the volatility (about 30%).
The defensive value stocks (that were our top recommendations), ET and VST are up 20-30%. That's a relative outperformance of the index of 40+%. Considering that in this 5 month bear market, 90% of stocks are down at least double digits, this was a hole-in-one. When I look at my own portfolio I still shudder when I see a sea of red in the entire market and yet my portfolio was relatively untouched... makes me feel very humbled and thankful to the One upstairs.
That being said, we also advised to keep cash because we thought the markets would be weak and volatile ~30%.
So... are we ripe for a bear market rally? The question we try to answer is when or how to deploy that cash?
We analyze the markets to give our viewers a way to best position in terms of rewards and risk for themselves based on the possibilities going forward.
Last quarter, we outlined a couple possibilities for the year, based on the macro would play out.
Last month, we updated out probabilities like so.
Scenario 1: continue to new highs 35%.
Scnerario 2: 45% (Drop to between 3700-3900 before deciding what to do).
Scenario 3: 20%.
Last week, the S&P500 hit our "nibble" zone of 2700-3900.
Will we have Scenario 2?
or this? Scenario 3.
We will study and list out what we see now, and what needs to happen for Scenario 2 or 3 to play out. We will show where the market "check points are" and which zones will be likely hit based on those scenarios.
Some topics we will be touching on:
Deeper level technical analysis.
Sentiment and Probabilities. Intermarket analysis.
We will also introduce some large margin of safety stocks and their investment thesis that should outperform in an uncertain macro environment for those that have the stomach to dollar cost average into this bearishness.
When: May 30, 2022 07:30 PM Perth / Singapore
Register in advance for this meeting:
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.
We request that those who attend this Zoom meeting to contribute a gift of $50 or any amount on your heart. We believe the act of giving makes significant our endeavors, even if the gift is enough for coffee or bubble tea.
By faith, we are structuring our service like a ministry. We spend our time and experience sowing the best ideas we have to you and we hope you will also sow in us. I can guarentee you that the work you get here, although sparadic at times, is at a very high level that can give research houses that charge thousands a run for their money.
See you there!
Helps: If these posts have blessed you and you would like to send a gift, do send an email to Ken@quantzombie.com to let us know! We would be so happy to know that you have chosen to sow into this ministry. It keeps the lights on. Singaporean donors can use PayNow: 98777219. For international donors, please use Paypal: paypal.me/kennethwkkoh.
Do not let your hearts be troubled; do not be afraid. (John 14:27)
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