Two Bottom Plays according to My Quant-Bottom Stock Pickng System: FOUR and MORN.

I know it's been a long time since my last post.

I have taken a long sabbatical because I've been focusing on writing my book tentalively titled "10,000 Days of Sickness: A Christian Memoir and Survival Manual through the Abyss" which includes my journey through anamolies, prolonged suffering and theological decontruction and falling into Grace. This book will likely be my life's work and is filled with all the spiritual lessons, and theological reflections, learned while drowning in incurable disease and forced irrelevance.

It traces my crazy rise from being an average student to an Ivy-League STEM graduate, then losing almost everything to eurythrodermic eczema (a rare and life-threatening form), and the most unlikely recovery in both health and career (at 40) when most people thought it was too late.

I share how I've seen the best dermatologists and couldn't find a long-term solution for decades, dooming me into an Abyss of sorts, cycling through failed medical treatments and immunosuppresants, extreme pain and temporary comfort, physical ugliness and temporary normality. And, how the world around shifted the way they perceived and treated me.

In it, I also write how I was forced into the stock market while I was forced to remain in the bubble of my bedroom for almost 2 years at the age of 33. And, in those isolation years, how God inspired many of my bottom finding and market timing strategies without formal education or professional resources (at the time).

Although I explore and unpack many themes, the biggest would be hesed grace.

The exploration and interacting with God's powerful, transformative grace that is unlocked fully in Christ was the foundation that eventually turned everything around, opening doors when there was none, revealing meaning in the chaos, and elevating my experiences against the Abyss that threatened to flatten them to nothingness.

What I am writing will not be anything typical: it's written not to comfort the reader who may be in his own Abyss, but it explains the logic of collpase and attempts to interupt it with a distinctive fusion of theology, existential realism, and metaphor.

Here's what one of my proof-readers had to say:

“Kenneth’s account of life in what seemed a hopelessly locked abyss takes us beyond easy answers. If suffering could be measured by degrees, his thirty-one years would rank at the top of the scale. Many books on suffering echo Job’s comforters or drift toward the nihilism of Camus or Russell. Ken’s writing avoids both. His book lives in the strange in-between—where he affirms the power and goodness of God while reckoning honestly with suffering and evil. He wrestles with the mystery of God through the lens of an Ivy-League engineer who studied theology while enduring an incurable, worsening disease. His candor draws readers in; his theology is thoughtful without dogmatism and free from unqualified exhortation. A worthy and deeply human read.”

—Winfried Corduan, Professor Emeritus of Philosophy and Religion, Taylor University; Author of Neighboring Faiths: A Christian Introduction to World Religions

Now, that doesn't mean i'm not engaged in the market.

I still advice privately and have been on top of major market movements.

I actually caught the the last reversal on the S&P500 on the 30th March 2026 to the day while many technical analysts were bearish. But unfortunately, I didn't post about it because I was focused on my book and new health issues. I know what I just said didn't help... so I thought to do the next best thing.

While many beta stocks have been recovering, and oil stocks slowly returning back to normalizations, I thought I can throw in some interesting plays that are lagging.

All these counters have been flagged by my proprietary quant-bottom system.

So while I am only presenting price-charts, and basic numbers on why these could go higher, please note that I am not revealing the other factors my system looks at (and also how I knew 30 March and 1 Apr was a high probability bounce). So don't read the little of what I wrote and think that's all I look at... it's far from it. I am just presenting the "bare-bones" to get you through the door and invite you to take a longer look.

Also note that these are for educational purposes only, and that one should understand the nature of these picks and have appropriate risk management. These are quant-bottom stocks, meaning, there are many factors that point to high reward-to-risk, but there is stil the uncertainty of fog-of-war, it's possible the down-trend may continue, and different stocks will have different degrees of upside and downside and catalysts; however, at these price-levels, the reward-to-risk will be positively assymetic.

FOUR (Shift 4 Payments):

Shift4 is a payment processor that handles transactions for businesses like restaurants, hotels, casinos, and sports venues. It provides end-to-end payment solutions (hardware + software + processing), aiming to capture more revenue per merchant than traditional processors.

It had been dropping because of lower 2026 profit guidance vs expectations and analyst downgrades + growth concerns. So the market thinks growth and profitability won't be as strong as previously expected. But does that justify this price?

3-point bull case

1. Still high growth business

~25–30% revenue growth range

Expanding into new verticals (travel, global payments)

If growth sustains → valuation looks cheap

2. End-to-end model = higher margins long-term

Controls: Software, Payments, Hardware.

This is like a “Toast / Square hybrid”:

More control → better unit economics over time

3. Execution rebound potential

Current selloff = expectations reset

If: Guidance proves conservative and integration works then Earnings upside + multiple rerating

Valuation is undemanding at 8x fw PE.

It was 500M USD of it's 1B share buyback vs it's market cap of 3.8B.

Note that for the 1st time in almost a year, the price is finally attempting to make an upswing and upside cut on the weekly MACD. If it does, it will potentially trigger more buying from traders and algos.

Similar here, if the price can successfully breakout of the 50MA on the daily, it will trigger more buying.

Of note, FOUR has a high short interest of 20%, no doubt fueled by the "AI killing SAAS" narrative and recent bearishness due to the Iran conflict.

However, high short interest is also upside firepower when they start to unwind.

The numbers tell me that statistically, the reward to risk is good and assymmetric based on the information we have now.

FOUR could be forming an absolute bottom (if they turn things around), and any normalization could easily take the price to $60 in a year or 30%++ inside, even more depending on the growth they show again.

BONUS EXAMPLE: MORN

MSFT

Yes, I know this is MSFT. I wanted to start here. I won't say much here, except that a new trend looks like it is starting, but that is not my focus here.

My focus is actually MORN, which my quant-bottom system flagged up.

Microsoft's price weakness was the prime indication of the "AI killing SAAS" bearish thesis, because of it's blue-chip status and how the price dropped even though MSFT is still profitable. So, when I see MSFT's price recovery, I look for other stocks that are lagging, and might have good upside on the same thesis. Hence, MORN.

MORN has a proprietary data moat.

Morningstar owns massive historical datasets across:

Funds

Equities

ETFs

Private markets

Proprietary frameworks:

Star ratings

Style box

Fund classifications

These are: Structured, curated, long-duration datasets — NOT easily replicated

They also have private markets advantage.

Through PitchBook:

Tracks:

Private equity deals

Valuations

Fund performance

Uses proprietary data like:

Deal multiples

fund returns

transaction-level data

Private equity data is opaque + scarce → high pricing power

So “AI killing SaaS narrative" might be overblown here.

AI does NOT replace MORN — it needs MORN

If so, then MORN is not expensive at 15x fw PE and MSFT's surge may indicate an appetite on MORN again.

BONUS: CPRI

I won't go into the details here, but note that it has a 1B share buyback in place versis it's present $2.3B market cap.

So these stocks are for considerations for those who missed the recent surge in beta and want to consider interesting lagging stocks.

Also note that when trading bottoming stocks, diversification is key. Some stocks will outperform at different times in the market and with different degrees. Some stocks will work well, some, not so well, some continue their downtrends. I cannot guarentee which will do well, but I do know that in general, on the grand scale, my quant-bottom system churns out more winners than losers. So, trade accordingly.

If you appreciate my contributions, consider buying and spreading the word on my book when it comes out. God willing, it may come out 6 months from now.

That's all I have for today.

I will return to my writing hole again.

Take care everyone!